The older population in the UK is increasing. The number of people aged 65-79 is predicted to increase by nearly a third (30%) to more than 10 million in the next 40 years, while the number of people aged 80 and over – the fastest growing segment of the population – is set to more than double to over six million.
Demand outstripping supply
According to analysis from Savills, only 14,500 new care home beds have been delivered since 2020, and demand for places significantly outstrips supply. This is less than a third of the 14,400 beds per year that are needed to maintain current ratios, never mind meet future population growth. Two-thirds of new care home developments are planned in London, the South, and the East of England, meaning a number of regions face a drastic under-supply of care services, Savills’ research found. Data on active adult social care services in England from the Care Quality Commission, which regulates care providers, bear out these trends. As our infographic shows, there are more than double the number of care service providers in London and the South East compared to the North East.
The shortfall in supply of care services to older people is down in some part to changes in social care policy and declining social care provision from the government. The care sector has also experienced well-documented recruitment challenges, partly due to Britain’s decision to leave the EU, making it more difficult and expensive for overseas care workers to come to the UK to live and work. A survey by Curam, an online care platform, last December found that almost three-quarters of British people worry about being able to access publicly funded care in later life.
Future needs
So how will the sector meet future demand? For care providers, there are both challenges and opportunities. Dr Robert Kilgour, founder of social care businesses Renaissance Care and Four Seasons Care and founder of think-tank The Social Care Foundation, says: “Social care businesses have been confronted with a post-Covid ‘new normal’ characterised by high inflation, stagnant fee increases, higher interest rates and labour shortages. Despite these complex financial challenges, there are important steps they can take to position themselves for long-term success in a digitally dominant horizon.”
A white paper from Kent Finance and law firm Browne Jacobson, commissioned by the Social Care Foundation, argues that care businesses that embrace innovation and leverage their data are better positioned for long-term success. Charlotte Harpin, partner in the health and life sciences team at Browne Jacobson and one of the authors, explains: “Investing in financial and data management is crucial to strategic planning for social care providers if they are to meet rising demand for their services amid a series of acute economic and social challenges, including an ageing population, greater complexity of care needs, strain on social care funding, stagnant fees and workforce shortages. Leveraging data effectively can inform better decision making, improve service delivery and ensure continued regulatory compliance. Care providers that do not embrace the opportunities created by better use of data risk falling behind the market.”
The role of AI and digital tools
In terms of embracing innovation, artificial intelligence and other digital tools are likely to play a crucial role in addressing demand for care services, particularly with greater digitisation high on the CQC’s regulatory agenda. Some care businesses are already using AI for remote monitoring or detecting changes in patients, for example, using the data this produces to identify patterns in behaviour and shape care accordingly. Telehealth services could also be an option for routine check-ups or consultations with clients, reducing the need for frequent in-person visits. Wearables could track vital signs and health metrics in real-time, meaning employees can intervene early if necessary. Care home providers and domiciliary care agencies are also increasingly looking at how smart home technologies such as fall detection sensors and voice assistants can enhance the services they offer. None of these solutions in isolation will tackle the acute challenges faced by care providers currently, but together they can maximise the resources they do have and help them become sustainable businesses for the future.
DATA
Source: Care Quality Commission
(this includes adult social care services and care homes)
